Is he using reverse psychology on progressives who automatically oppose him? And will it work?

President Donald Trump has one message for Democrats threatening a government shutdown in the coming week:

“Do it.”

Trump, it would seem, has an unexpected Ace in the Hole: “White House raises specter of mass firings if government shuts down,” reported Hans Nichols for Axios yesterday.

In a memo shared with POLITICO, the White House laid out its plan if Democrats in Congress force a shutdown:

“Thank you for your agency’s efforts to date to prepare for an orderly shutdown in the event of a lapse in appropriations. As required by Section 124 of OMB Circular A-11, OMB held its first lapse planning call with agencies earlier this week, and we will continue to provide lapse updates as we approach the end of the fiscal year. 

Over the past 10 fiscal years, Congress has consistently passed Continuing Resolutions (CRs) on or by September 30 on a bipartisan basis. Unfortunately, congressional Democrats are signaling that they intend to break this bipartisan trend and shut down the government in the coming days over a series of insane demands, including $1 trillion in new spending. 

Last week, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 5371, a clean CR that would fund the government at current levels through November 21. The Administration supports Senate passage of H.R. 5371, but congressional Democrats are currently blocking this clean CR due to their partisan demands. As such, it has never been more important for the Administration to be prepared for a shutdown if the Democrats choose to pursue one. 

Thankfully, H.R. 1 provided ample resources to ensure that many core Trump Administration priorities will continue uninterrupted. Programs that did not benefit from an infusion of mandatory appropriations will bear the brunt of a shutdown, and we must continue our planning efforts in the event Democrats decide to shut down the government. 

If Congress successfully passes a clean CR prior to September 30, the additional steps outlined in this email will not be necessary. With respect to those Federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded, such programs are no longer statutorily required to be carried out. 

Therefore, consistent with applicable law, including the requirements of 5 C.F.R. part 351, agencies are directed to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities (PPAs) that satisfy all three of the following conditions: (1) discretionary funding lapses on October 1, 2025; (2) another source of funding, such as H.R. 1 (Public Law 119–21) is not currently available; and (3) the PPA is not consistent with the President’s priorities. RIF notices will be in addition to any furlough notices provided due to the lapse in appropriation. RIF notices should be issued to all employees working on the relevant PPA, regardless of whether the employee is excepted or furloughed during the lapse in appropriations.

Once fiscal year 2026 appropriations are enacted, agencies should revise their RIFs as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions. Any proposed RIF plan must be submitted to OMB. As a reminder, updated agency lapse plans were due to OMB on August 1. OMB has received many, but not all, of your submissions. 

Please send us your updated lapse plans ASAP. As previously communicated, we want to reiterate what we are expecting to see in these plans: Agency plans should not “repurpose” balances or assume use of transfer authorities. Any exceptions must be requested of OMB, and will be considered on a case-by-case basis.  In cases where agencies received appropriations under H.R. 1, agencies’ lapse plans should assume this funding is obligated consistent with OMB-approved spend plans. If you have already submitted your lapse plan to OMB for review, we will be reaching out to you the coming days to update your plans in line with this guidance as needed.

We remain hopeful that Democrats in Congress will not trigger a shutdown and the steps outlined above will not be necessary. The President supports enactment of a clean CR to ensure no discretionary spending lapse after September 30, 2025, and OMB hopes the Democrats will agree.”

If this is a bluff by the White House in an attempt to stave off an embarrassing shutdown, it’s a good one. Conservative media outlets are positively giddy at the prospect.

“Trump Plans Mass Firings of Bureaucrats If Dems Shut Down Government,” crowed John Nolte for Breitbart after the news broke: “This is powerful leverage for Trump because Democrats love bureaucrats because bureaucrats 1) vote Democrat and 2) make up the Deep State that constantly foils the will of Normal People when a Republican is in office.”

He may have a point. In many ways, President Donald Trump is in a position of greater leverage compared with his Democratic Party detractors in Congress.

This week, he abruptly cancelled a meeting with Congressional Democratic Party leaders after what the President called “unserious demands.”

“After reviewing the details of the unserious and ridiculous demands being made by the Minority Radical Left Democrats in return for their Votes to keep our thriving Country open, I have decided that no meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive,” President Trump posted to Truth Social on September 24, 2025. “They are threatening to shut down the Government of the United States unless they can have over $1 Trillion Dollars in new spending to continue free healthcare for Illegal Aliens (A monumental cost!), force Taxpayers to fund Transgender surgery for minors, have dead people on the Medicaid roles, allow Illegal Alien Criminals to steal Billions of Dollars in American Taxpayer Benefits, try to force our Country to again open our Borders to Criminals and to the World, allow men to play in women’s sports, and essentially create Transgender operations for everybody.”

“These Radical Left Views and Policies is what allowed me to win the Presidential Election, including all seven Swing States, and the Popular Vote, IN A HISTORIC LANDSLIDE,” President Trump vented. “There are consequences to losing Elections but, based on their letter to me, the Democrats haven’t figured that out yet.”

“They are trying to eliminate the popular $50 Billion Dollar Rural and Vulnerable Hospital Fund, which was passed with only Republican Votes, and proudly signed into Law by ME,” fumed Trump. “The Democrats in Congress seem to have totally lost their way. They obviously have no idea what it means to put America First or to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” 

“All Congressional Democrats want to do is enact Radical Left Policies that nobody voted for — High Taxes, Open Borders, No Consequences for Violent Criminals, Men in Women’s Sports, Taxpayer funded “TRANSGENDER” surgery, and much more,” continued Trump. “Few people voted for what they represent, which would lead to the destruction of America. Instead, people voted for COMMON SENSE, and that’s what the Republicans and your President, “DONALD J. TRUMP,” stand for. I look forward to meeting with them if they get serious about the future of our Nation.”

“We must keep the Government open, and legislate like true Patriots rather than hold American Citizens hostage, knowing that they want our now thriving Country closed,” he went on. “I’ll be happy to meet with them if they agree to the Principles in this Letter. They must do their job! Otherwise, it will just be another long and brutal slog through their radicalized quicksand. To the Leaders of the Democrat Party, the ball is in your court. I look forward to meeting with you when you become realistic about the things that our Country stands for. DO THE RIGHT THING!”

While conservative media outlets are giddy at the prospect, progressive news media outlets are, perhaps understandably, furious.

“Trump Decides to Own the Shutdown,” complained David Dayen in The American Prospect on September 23, 2025. “Today on TAP: Agreeing to and then canceling a meeting on government funding makes clear who’s immiserating the public with a costly shutdown.”

“In the past 24 hours, we’ve been treated to a combination of first-term and second-term Trump,” Dayen sniffed. “On Monday, the president agreed to a meeting with House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to negotiate a government funding compromise, after both Democratic and Republican stopgap bills failed last Friday. Insiders were concerned mostly about whether Republican congressional leaders would attend to protect their position, lest ‘Art of the Deal’ Trump give away the farm to Democrats. But by Tuesday morning, Trump realized that his dealmaker persona doesn’t exist anymore, replaced with pure hatred and vengeance.”

But while progressive media outlets seize on this as yet another example of Trumpian excess, Trump’s allies seem to be on board and he is obviously ready to play hardball.

Trump is well-placed at this time for just such a showdown with Democrats. 

The economy, much ballyhooed by Trump and his allies, continues to improve despite all of the dire tariff predictions. The U.S. GDP grew more than expected last quarter. A robust 3.8% is a major win for Trump.

“Economists had expected no change from the earlier estimate,” reported John Carney for Breitbart on September 25, 2025. “Instead, updated data showed firmer household demand. Consumer spending rose at a 2.5 percent rate, up from the previously reported 1.6 percent. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — a key gauge of underlying demand — advanced 2.9 percent, sharply higher than the earlier 1.9 percent reading.”

What’s more, polls show that Americans still trust the GOP more than Democrats on crime and the economy. Likewise Mr. Trump is much more popular than his opponents wish.

In addition, Trump’s base is unlikely to object to this gambit. If anything, it is likely to improve Trump’s ratings.

Will it serve to avoid a shutdown?

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)